Ideas on investing,
decision-making, and uncertainty.
decision-making, and uncertainty.
Navigating Uncertainty. Making Better Decisions.
Timeless ideas and mental models to help you think clearly and act rationally in an uncertain world.
FEATURED ESSAYS
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INVESTING
Why Most Investors Misunderstand Risk
Understanding risk correctly is the foundation of good investing.
DECISION-MAKING
The Difference Between Noise and Information
One is unavoidable. The other is a compounding advantage.
MENTAL MODELS
Optionality and the Power of Convex Decisions
The best outcomes often come from asymmetric bets.
THE PAUSE
AN OPERATING SYSTEM FOR BETTER JUDGEMENT
The Pause
The space between stimulus and response. Where better thinking begins.
How Thinking Works
Awareness. Discipline. Humility. The foundations of sound judgement.
Where Thinking Breaks
Biases, narratives, crowds, and emotion distort our judgement.
Better Judgement
Mental models and heuristics to navigate uncertainty.
Better Decisions
Better judgement applied to investing, business, leadership, and life.